Legal documents are provided in English; the English version is the controlling one.

Terms of Service

Effective date: 15 October 2026 · Version 2026-10-15 · Replaces version 2026-07-05

In plain words. This summary helps you find your way; the numbered sections below are what count.

• mariobets sells football intelligence: prices, probabilities, evidence and explanations about football matches and, where it is offered, data-based predictions.
• mariobets is not a bookmaker. You cannot bet here, and no money for bets ever passes through us.
• Where it is offered, mariobets publishes data-based predictions: how likely an outcome is, the data behind that number and how similar predictions did in the past. A prediction is a statistical estimate, never a certainty and not a suggestion to bet; whether to bet, and the risk, are yours. Every number is an estimate or a past result, never a promise.
• You must be 18 or older.
• If you pay for a subscription, you can cancel at any time; consumers in the EU, the EEA and the UK also have 14 days to withdraw.
• Your mandatory rights as a consumer always apply; nothing in these Terms takes them away.

1. Who we are

1.1 The service called mariobets — the website at mariobets.xyz and everything available through it (the "Service") — is operated by [LEGAL ENTITY NAME], a [LEGAL FORM] established in Italy, with registered office at [REGISTERED ADDRESS], registered with the companies register of [CITY] under number [REA NUMBER], VAT number [VAT NUMBER], share capital [SHARE CAPITAL], certified email (PEC) [PEC ADDRESS] ("mariobets", "we", "us", "our").

1.2 How to reach us:

• General questions: info@mariobets.xyz, or the contact form
• Legal notices, withdrawal and complaints: legal@mariobets.xyz
• Privacy and your data: privacy@mariobets.xyz
• Reports of illegal or abusive content: abuse@mariobets.xyz
• Security of your account: security@mariobets.xyz

1.3 These Terms, together with the Privacy Policy, the Cookie Policy, the Acceptable Use Policy, the Disclaimer and the Responsible Use page, form the agreement between you and us. "You" means the person who uses the Service. The Service is for personal, non-commercial use, so we treat every member as a consumer.

2. What mariobets is — and what it is not

2.1 mariobets is an information and education service about football. It shows: the prices that bookmakers quote; the fair price, which is our estimate of a price with the bookmaker's margin removed; probabilities derived from prices and from statistical models; market signals, which are facts about how prices have moved; statistics, standings, form and match context; evidence, meaning the past matches on which each method and each statement of ours was tested; explanations, a glossary and lessons in Learn; My record, a journal in which you can log bets you placed elsewhere and compare your prices with the closing price; the forecast lab, a free game in which you give your own probabilities for league matches and see how they score against the market — no stake and no prize; and the sealed record, an append-only log of the market signals and evidence we publish, whose daily seal is timestamped through OpenTimestamps (see the Disclaimer, section 9). Where it is offered, it also shows data-based predictions in the Predictions (Pronostici) section (section 2.7).

2.2 mariobets is not a bookmaker, a betting exchange, a casino, a lottery or any other gambling operator, and it does not act as an intermediary for any of them. You cannot place, fund or settle a bet on mariobets. We never hold, receive or transfer money for bets.

2.3 Where it is offered, the Predictions section publishes data-based predictions (section 2.7). A prediction is a statistical estimate of how likely an outcome is, with the data it rests on and its record; the probability is the same for every member. It is not a betting suggestion, not a personal recommendation and not financial advice, and it is never a certainty. It does not tell you whether, on what or how much to bet: that decision, and its risk, are yours alone. mariobets takes no bets and receives nothing from bookmakers. When we show that a price is above or below the fair price, we state a fact about prices.

2.4 mariobets does not invite anyone to gamble and offers no incentive to do so: a prediction says how likely an outcome is and how similar predictions fared in the past, nothing more. In particular:

• bookmakers are named in plain text only — never with a link, a logo, an offer or a promotion;
• we have no affiliate, referral or other commercial relationship with any bookmaker, and no bookmaker pays us to be shown, ranked or described;
• we show no countdowns and no urgency labels, and we suggest no stakes on public prices; the one exception is the accumulator calculator (section 2.7), which computes, from a budget and a target you enter, an accumulator and the same selections as singles with your budget divided equally;
• we earn money only from members' subscriptions — no advertising, no commissions, no sale of data.

2.5 A bookmaker is named to you only if it holds a licence in the country where you told us you live, according to that country's official register (for example, the register of the Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli in Italy). Prices from other bookmakers and from betting exchanges may be used, without their names, to compute the fair price. Until you choose your country, we apply the rules of the country that matches your interface language (Italian: Italy; French: France; Spanish: Spain; German: Germany; Portuguese: Portugal; English: United Kingdom). That guess only ever narrows what we show; it never widens it. In the Predictions section no bookmaker is named until you have chosen your country (section 2.7).

2.6 Because the law differs from country to country, part of what you see — in particular which bookmakers are named — depends on your country. This is required by law; it is not a difference in treatment based on your nationality.

2.7 Predictions (Pronostici).

• What it shows. Where the section is offered, for upcoming matches of the leagues listed on its page, the outcome the data find most likely, with three indicators: its probability (the market's probability without the bookmaker's margin, corrected where the reference market's own past prices show it is systematically off), the solidity of the data behind it (how many similar past matches there are, and whether the seasons agree) and its price (the best price at a bookmaker licensed in your country, compared with the fair price). Stars summarise how likely an outcome is and whether there are enough data behind it; they do not say whether a bet is worth making.
• Simple and Expert views. The Simple view lists up to ten of the most likely outcomes of the coming days with solid data; the Expert view lists every eligible match with filters and can also show other outcomes with a probability of at least 25% whose best licensed price is at or above the fair price — a fact about prices: it does not make the outcome more likely. Every match of the coming days in the covered leagues is listed with its status: a prediction, a prediction to be read with caution, or the reason there is none.
• Predictions to be read with caution. Where no reference market whose correction passed our checks is available — for example when only a consensus of several bookmakers' prices exists, or when the reference prices are older than two days — the prediction is still shown, labelled as one to be read with caution, with the reason, at most three stars, and outside the Simple view's list and the accumulator calculator. Its record is kept and shown separately.
• The record. The section publishes how its predictions did, losses included: checked on the seasons 2022/23–2025/26, which we also looked at to set the rules, and, from launch, on a forward record of every prediction shown. It is a past result, not a promise.
• Bookmakers. A prediction's price detail names the licensed bookmaker with the highest price — only bookmakers licensed in your country, and only once you have told us your country in Profile; until then the price is shown without the bookmaker's name. A name is plain text, never with a link, a logo or an offer (section 2.4).
• The accumulator calculator (Calcolatore di schedina). From a budget and a target you enter, the accumulator calculator finds, at one bookmaker licensed in your country, the verified predictions shown whose combined price reaches the target with the highest chance that all of them happen (if none does, the set that comes closest), and shows them as one accumulator at that bookmaker and as singles, your budget divided equally, each single at the licensed bookmaker with the highest price. For each form it shows the probability and the average return estimated from past data. It is a calculation on the numbers you enter: it places no bet, sends nothing to any bookmaker and records nothing in My record; whether to bet, where and how much is your decision. It needs a weekly limit (section 9.2) and works within the lower of that limit and 100 euros a week, counting the budgets you enter (several attempts within 30 minutes count once, at the largest) and the stakes you log.
• Where and when. The section is for members only and never appears on a public page. It may be switched off in some countries. During a break (section 9.1) it is hidden.
• No artificial intelligence. Predictions are computed from data with fixed rules. AI never writes a prediction. A question to Ask mariobets that it recognises, by its words, as being about the section or its accumulator calculator (for example one that names them) gets a fixed explanation of the section, written in advance, with no AI involved; its AI does not explain the terms that describe a prediction, such as its stars or the label "read with caution" (the fixed explanation and the glossary do).

3. Who may use mariobets

3.1 You must be at least 18 years old and able to enter into a binding contract where you live. When you request access and when you create your account, you confirm that you are 18 or older.

3.2 The Service is offered to people who live in a country of the Service's country list: the member states of the European Union, Norway, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Serbia.

3.3 You are responsible for using the Service lawfully where you live, including any rules about betting with third parties.

3.4 We will close an account if we have reasonable grounds to believe that it belongs to a person under 18.

4. Access and your account

4.1 Access is by invitation. You can request an invitation with your email address and your Instagram username; you then show that the Instagram account is yours by placing a short code in its bio. A person on our team reviews every request. We may decline a request, and nobody has a right to an invitation.

4.2 An invitation code is personal: it can be used once, it expires after 14 days, and when it comes from an access request it works only with the email address and the Instagram account given in that request. You may not sell, share or transfer it.

4.3 You must give accurate details, keep one account only, keep your password secret and tell us promptly at security@mariobets.xyz if you suspect someone else is using your account. We recommend that you turn on two-step sign-in (an email code or a passkey) and keep your backup codes safe. You are responsible for what happens under your account, unless it happens because of our fault.

4.4 On your first visit we ask for your country, your experience (beginner or expert) and the odds format you prefer. Your country decides which bookmakers may be named to you; your experience decides how much is explained on screen. Your experience also decides whether Predictions opens in its Simple or Expert view; until you tell us your country, no bookmaker is named next to a prediction.

5. Price, free access and subscriptions

5.1 Free access today. At present the Service is free of charge. Before paid plans start, we will tell you by email and in the Service at least 30 days in advance. Nothing will ever be charged unless you choose to subscribe.

5.2 Plans and prices. When paid plans are active, the price, the billing period and what is included are shown to you before you subscribe. Prices include VAT where it applies. Payments are processed by Stripe; we never see your full card details.

5.3 Automatic renewal. A subscription renews automatically at the end of each billing period, at the price in force at that time, until you cancel it.

5.4 Free trial. Your first subscription starts with a free trial of 7 days. If you cancel before the trial ends, you pay nothing. If you do not cancel, the price is charged when the trial ends. A trial is available once per member.

5.5 Without an active subscription. When paid plans are active and you have no active subscription or free time, your account stays open but only your profile is available: you can still see and change your settings, export your data and delete your account.

5.6 Cancelling. You can cancel at any time in Profile › Subscription. The cancellation takes effect at the end of the billing period already paid, and you keep access until then; before that date you can change your mind and resume. Cancelling does not delete your account. Unless you withdraw under section 6, or the law gives you a right to a refund, we do not refund the remaining part of a period that has started.

5.7 Price changes. We may change the price of a subscription for the future. We will tell you by email at least 30 days before the new price applies to you; it applies only from your next renewal, and you can cancel before then at no cost.

5.8 Referral codes. When you request access you may give the referral code of the member who invited you; we record who invited whom. No free days or other reward are given for referrals. Referral codes concern mariobets only: we never run referral or affiliate schemes for bookmakers.

5.9 Complimentary access. We may give free access to some people, for example people who help us test the Service.

6. Your right to withdraw (consumers in the EU, the EEA and the UK)

6.1 If you live in the EU, the EEA or the UK, you may withdraw from a subscription within 14 days from the day the subscription contract is concluded — the day you start the subscription, free trial included — without giving any reason.

6.2 To withdraw, use the "Withdraw from contract here" function in Profile › Subscription, or send us a clear statement by email to legal@mariobets.xyz. You may use the model form in the Annex, but you do not have to. You are in time if you send your statement before the 14 days end. We confirm receipt without delay by email.

6.3 If you withdraw, we refund every payment received from you for that subscription within 14 days of receiving your statement, using the same payment method, at no cost to you.

6.4 If, when you subscribe, you expressly ask us to start straight away and you then withdraw, you pay only a fair share of the price for the paid days you used; otherwise we refund everything you paid. The days of the free trial are always free.

6.5 In the UK, the same rights apply under the Consumer Contracts (Information, Cancellation and Additional Charges) Regulations 2013.

6.6 If you live in Switzerland or Serbia, where the law may not give this right for contracts concluded online, we give you the same 14-day right voluntarily, on the same terms.

7. How to read the information

7.1 Estimates, not certainties. A probability is an estimate of how often something happens over many similar matches: an outcome given 60% is expected not to happen about 4 times in 10. The fair price is an estimate too. Models and data can be wrong. An outcome that differs from an estimate is not an error in the Service.

7.2 Past results, not promises. When we write that a method was "tested on N matches", we describe what happened in those past matches, which you can open and check. It is a past result, not a promise about the future.

7.3 Prices change. Prices move continuously and reach us with a delay; we show how old each price is. The price that applies to any bet you place is the one shown by the bookmaker on its own site at that moment.

7.4 Tools. The calculators and Combined probability do arithmetic on the numbers you enter or on fair prices. Their results follow from formulas you chose to use; they are not advice. Your list collects selections so that you can study them together; nothing in it is sent to any bookmaker. The accumulator calculator (section 2.7) does arithmetic on probabilities and prices too: its results are calculations on the budget and target you enter, and placing any bet remains your decision.

7.5 Text written with artificial intelligence. Some features use artificial intelligence: reading the photo of a betting slip you upload, summarising football news, explaining why a figure may be unreliable, writing short AI match previews from our data (they describe the context of a match and never predict its result), and answering questions in Ask mariobets (it explains our pages and your own record; it never writes predictions or says what or how much to bet). Text produced this way is labelled as such where it is shown, may contain errors, and never tells you what to bet. Details are in the Privacy Policy.

7.6 Corrections. When we find an error in a figure we published, we correct it and list the correction on the Method & evidence page.

8. My record, your profile and the community

8.1 My record is yours. You are responsible for the accuracy of what you log; we do not verify that a logged bet was actually placed.

8.2 Your profile is private by default. An entry you log in the app is marked as shared (an imported history is not); shared entries are visible to other members only if your profile is public, each marked as verified or not, and public figures count verified entries only. If you make your profile public, other members can see your username, avatar, bio, follower counts and your shared entries — always as results in units, never as amounts of money. You can un-share or delete any entry, or make your profile private, at any time.

8.3 You keep ownership of what you write and upload. You give us a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence, for as long as the content is on the Service, to store, reproduce and display it only as needed to run the Service for you and, if you make it public, to show it to the members you allow. The licence ends when you delete the content or your account, except for copies we must or may keep under the Privacy Policy.

8.4 Your username, bio and anything you share must follow the Acceptable Use Policy. In particular, they may not contain links to bookmakers, referral or promotion codes for gambling services, or offers of tips or betting services.

9. Well-being tools

9.1 Take a break: in Profile you can start a break of 1, 7, 30, 90 or 180 days. Once started, a break cannot be shortened. During a break you cannot log new bets or give new forecasts in the forecast lab, and your price alerts and market-signal notifications are paused; the weekly recap and the closing-price notice are paused too. The Predictions (Pronostici) section and its accumulator calculator are hidden for the whole break; their record stays readable, and so does everything else you can read.

9.2 Weekly limit: you can set a limit on how much you stake in a week; mariobets shows how much of it you have used, counting the stakes you logged in My record since Monday. A stricter limit applies immediately; a higher limit, or removing it, takes effect after 24 hours. The accumulator calculator works only with a weekly limit set; the budgets you enter in it count against the limit together with your logged stakes (several attempts within 30 minutes count once, at the largest budget), never beyond 100 euros a week. We cannot see what you actually bet with a bookmaker.

9.3 These tools cannot stop you betting elsewhere. The Responsible Use page lists national self-exclusion schemes and free, confidential help in each country.

10. Notifications

You choose how we contact you about the Service: email, browser notifications and, if you link it, Telegram. Price alerts, market-signal notifications and the news digest are off until you turn them on, and you can turn them off at any time. The weekly recap of your own record is off until you turn it on. Once you open a channel (browser notifications or Telegram), we tell you there, once for each logged bet, how your price compared with the closing price (several bets may share one message); you can switch it off in Profile. Security messages (for example, a sign-in from a new device) are part of keeping your account safe.

11. Reporting illegal content and how we moderate

This section gives the information required by the EU Digital Services Act (Regulation (EU) 2022/2065) from a hosting service.

11.1 Points of contact. Public authorities, the European Commission and the European Board for Digital Services can reach us at legal@mariobets.xyz. Members and anyone else can reach us at abuse@mariobets.xyz. We accept messages in English and Italian.

11.2 Notices. Anyone can tell us about content on the Service that they consider illegal, by writing to abuse@mariobets.xyz with: why the content is illegal; where it is exactly (the username or the page address); your name and email address (not required for notices about child sexual abuse material); and a statement that you believe in good faith that the notice is accurate and complete. We confirm receipt, review the notice diligently and objectively, and tell you our decision and the ways to challenge it.

11.3 What we may restrict. We may remove or hide content (usernames, avatars, bios, shared entries and public profiles), limit features, suspend or close an account, when the content is illegal or breaks these Terms. People on our team take these decisions. The only automatic checks are technical rules applied when content is entered, such as allowed characters, reserved names and length limits. We do not monitor content in general.

11.4 Reasons. When we restrict your content or your account, we tell you clearly and specifically why: the facts, the rule or law concerned, and how to challenge the decision — unless the law prevents us.

11.5 Challenging a decision. You can ask us to review a decision by replying to our message, or by writing to abuse@mariobets.xyz, within six months. Where possible, the review is carried out by a person who was not involved in the first decision. You can also go to court at any time.

11.6 Serious crimes. If we become aware of information suggesting a criminal offence that threatens a person's life or safety, we inform the competent authorities.

12. Acceptable use

The Acceptable Use Policy is part of these Terms.

13. Intellectual property

13.1 The Service, its software, design, texts, models, evidence pages and the databases we build are protected by copyright, database rights and other rights belonging to us or to the people who license them to us. Some football data and prices are supplied by third parties under licence.

13.2 We give you a personal, non-exclusive, non-transferable right to use the Service for your own information, under these Terms. You may share the share cards and links that the Service offers for that purpose (for example news articles, the news digest and match pages), unchanged and with their source; predictions have no share cards.

13.3 You may not copy, extract, scrape or resell the Service or a substantial part of its data; reverse-engineer the software, except where the law allows; use the content to train machine-learning models; or use our name or content to promote gambling.

13.4 Bookmaker names may be trademarks of their owners. We use them only to say where a price was quoted; this implies no affiliation or endorsement.

14. Third-party services and data

The Service relies on suppliers (for example hosting, email delivery, payment processing and artificial-intelligence processing) and on football data, prices and news from third parties. Pages of other sites that we mention — never bookmakers' — are run by their owners under their own terms.

15. Changes to the Service

15.1 We improve the Service continuously, and we may change, add or remove features for valid reasons: changes in the law, in our data suppliers or in technology, security, or improvements to the Service.

15.2 If you have a paid subscription and a change reduces, more than in a minor way, your access to the Service or its usefulness to you, we will tell you in advance, clearly. You may then end your subscription free of charge within 30 days of the change, and we refund the unused part of the period you paid for.

16. Your statutory rights

16.1 We must provide the Service as described in these Terms. If you are a consumer in the EU or the EEA, the legal guarantee of conformity for digital content and digital services applies (Directive (EU) 2019/770 as implemented where you live; in Italy, Articles 135-octies and following of the Consumer Code): if the Service does not conform, you can ask us to bring it into conformity and, in the cases the law provides, obtain a price reduction or end the contract. In the UK, the Consumer Rights Act 2015 applies.

16.2 As section 7 explains, an estimate that turns out different from the result is not a lack of conformity; a feature that does not work as described is.

17. Liability

17.1 We are fully liable, under the law that applies, for death or personal injury caused by our negligence, for fraud, for wilful misconduct and gross negligence, for breaches of your mandatory consumer rights (including the legal guarantee of conformity) and for any other liability that cannot be excluded or limited by law.

17.2 The Service provides information, including data-based predictions, which are probabilities and never certainties; it does not decide for you. Any bet is a decision you make, with a third party and under that party's terms; we are not a party to it. To the extent the law allows, we are not responsible for its outcome or for any amount you stake or lose. This does not limit section 17.1.

17.3 Apart from section 17.1, we are not responsible for losses that could not be foreseen when you accepted these Terms, or for interruptions and delays caused by events beyond our reasonable control (for example the failure of a data supplier or of a network), where we acted with reasonable care.

17.4 Apart from section 17.1, and to the extent the law of your country allows, our total liability for all claims connected with the Service in any period of 12 months is limited to the greater of the amount you paid us in that period and EUR 100.

17.5 If you break these Terms or the law when you use the Service, you are responsible under the law that applies for the damage you cause, for example to other members or to us.

18. Ending the contract

18.1 You can cancel a subscription at any time (section 5.6) and delete your account at any time in Profile. Deleting your account ends the contract; any subscription ends at the same time and no further payment is taken. What happens to your data is explained in the Privacy Policy.

18.2 We may suspend or close your account if you seriously or repeatedly break these Terms, if the law or an authority requires it, or if it is needed to protect the Service or other members. We act in proportion to the problem, give you our reasons (section 11.4) and, unless the urgency or the law prevents it, warn you in advance and let you explain.

18.3 We may stop the Service altogether by telling you at least 60 days in advance.

18.4 If we end your paid subscription and you have not broken these Terms, we refund the unused part of the period you paid for.

18.5 Sections that by their nature must continue after the contract ends — for example sections 13, 17 and 20 — continue to apply.

19. Changes to these Terms

19.1 We may change these Terms for valid reasons: changes in the law or in the guidance of authorities, changes to the Service, security, or to make them clearer.

19.2 We will tell you by email and in the Service at least 30 days before a change that affects you takes effect, explain what changes and, where the law requires it, ask you to accept the new version. If you do not agree, you can end the contract before the change takes effect; if you paid for a period, we refund the unused part. Changes that the law requires may take effect sooner.

19.3 The version and the effective date at the top of this page always show which text applies.

20. Governing law, courts and complaints

20.1 These Terms are governed by the law of Italy. If you are a consumer, this choice does not deprive you of the protection of the mandatory rules of the country where you live.

20.2 As a consumer, you may bring proceedings against us in the courts of the country where you live or in the courts of Italy, and we may bring proceedings against you only in the courts of the place where you live. This follows EU law (Regulation (EU) No 1215/2012), the Italian Consumer Code's rule on the consumer's court, the Lugano Convention for Switzerland and, in the UK, the rules of the part of the UK where you live.

20.3 If you have a complaint, please write to legal@mariobets.xyz first. We reply within 30 days.

20.4 You may also use an out-of-court dispute resolution body for consumers; the European Commission publishes a list of these bodies for the EU, Norway and Iceland. For cross-border disputes within the EU, the European Consumer Centres Network (ECC-Net) offers free help. We have not committed to a specific dispute resolution body.

21. General

21.1 If a court finds part of these Terms invalid, the rest stays in force.

21.2 If we do not enforce a right immediately, we do not give it up.

21.3 We may transfer this contract to a company that takes over the Service, provided your rights are not reduced; we will tell you, and you may end the contract if you prefer. You may not transfer your rights under these Terms.

21.4 These Terms are written in English, and the English text applies. The Service's interface is available in six languages; these Terms are not yet translated.

21.5 We send notices to the email address of your account or show them in the Service. You can send notices to us at legal@mariobets.xyz, by certified email (PEC) or by post to our registered office.

Annex — Model withdrawal form

Fill in and send this form only if you wish to withdraw from the contract.

• To: [LEGAL ENTITY NAME], [REGISTERED ADDRESS], legal@mariobets.xyz
• I hereby give notice that I withdraw from my contract for the provision of the following service: mariobets subscription
• Subscribed on:
• Name:
• Email address of my mariobets account:
• Address:
• Signature (only if this form is sent on paper):
• Date:

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