Legal documents are provided in English; the English version is the controlling one.

Disclaimer

Effective date: 16 October 2026 · Version 2026-10-16 · Replaces version 2026-10-15

This page explains how to read what mariobets shows, and what it is not. It is part of the Terms of Service.

1. Information and education, not advice

mariobets sells football intelligence: prices, probabilities, evidence and explanations about football matches and, where it is offered, data-based predictions — probabilities with the data behind them and their record (section 2a). A prediction is a statistical estimate: it says how likely an outcome is, not whether to bet. It is never a certainty, and nothing on mariobets is financial or investment advice, tax advice or a personal recommendation. We are not a tipster service and we sell no certainties; we are not your adviser. The accumulator calculator computes, from a budget and a target you enter, an accumulator and an equal division of your budget into singles; whether to bet, where and how much is your decision alone. If you need advice, ask a qualified professional.

2. Estimates, not certainties

A probability is an estimate. It says how often something is expected to happen over many similar matches. An outcome given 60% is expected not to happen about 4 times in 10 — so an outcome that goes the other way is normal, not an error.
The fair price is an estimate. It is the price with the bookmaker's margin removed, computed from the market's prices. Different methods give slightly different fair prices; the Method & evidence page explains ours.
A market signal is a fact about prices, such as a price that dropped or one that sits above the fair price. It describes the market; it is not an invitation to bet.
Models are wrong in part, always. They simplify football, and the data they use can be incomplete.

2a. Data-based predictions

What a prediction is. The outcome the data find most likely for an upcoming match, with its probability: the market's probability without the margin, corrected where the reference market's own past prices show it is systematically off. It is a probability, never a certainty: an outcome given 80% is expected not to happen about 2 times in 10.
What the stars say. How likely the outcome is and whether there are enough data behind it. They do not say whether a bet is worth making: a likely outcome can still be priced below what it is worth.
Simple and Expert views. The Simple view lists up to ten of the most likely outcomes of the coming days with solid data; the Expert view lists every eligible match with filters and can also show other outcomes with a probability of at least 25% whose best licensed price is at or above the fair price — a fact about prices: it does not make the outcome more likely. Every match of the coming days in the covered leagues is listed with its status: a prediction, a prediction to be read with caution, or the reason there is none.
Predictions to be read with caution. Where no reference market whose correction passed our checks is available — for example when only a consensus of several bookmakers' prices exists, or when the reference prices are older than two days — the prediction is still shown, labelled as one to be read with caution, with the reason, at most three stars, and outside the Simple view's list and the accumulator calculator. Its record is kept and shown separately.
How they did. The record is published in the section, losses included. It was checked on the seasons 2022/23–2025/26, which we also looked at to set the rules, so it is not an untouched test; the clean test is the forward record of every prediction shown, from launch. At a single bookmaker's price before the match, betting on them lost money at every star level in those seasons, five stars included, although for one, four and five stars the loss cannot be told apart from zero; see the record.
The price. A prediction's price is the best price among the bookmakers shown to you at the time it was read; its detail shows it with its age. Prices change, and the price that applies is the one on the bookmaker's own site.
Which bookmakers are shown. Only bookmakers licensed in your country: by default, the ones you chose in Profile (all of those licensed in your country if you chose none of them). Once you have chosen your country, you can also add others licensed there on the Predictions page; a bookmaker added this way applies only while it stays selected on that page, and it does not change your Profile. The Simple view's list of the most likely outcomes includes only predictions with a price read in the last 12 hours at one of the bookmakers shown to you, so adding a bookmaker can add predictions to it; the probabilities themselves are the same for every member.
Where a bookmaker is named. Once you have chosen your country, bookmakers are named on a prediction's card, in its detail, in the accumulator calculator's result, in the list of bookmakers you can add on the page and in the form that records in My record a bet you placed elsewhere; until then, no bookmaker is named in the Predictions section and prices are shown without a name. Only bookmakers licensed in your country are named. A name is plain text, never with a link, a logo or an offer, and it never appears in the same card or figure as a past return, a comparison with closing prices (CLV) or a figure of the record.

3. Past results, not promises

When we write that a method was "tested on N matches", we describe what happened in those past matches; you can open the list and check each one. Tests on past data have limits: markets change, data can contain errors, and a method that looks good on past matches can fail on the next ones. Every figure about the past is a past result, not a promise about the future. Our own tests show how hard it is to do better than the bookmakers' closing prices; the evidence is on the Method & evidence page.

4. Betting costs money on average

Every bookmaker's price includes a margin. Because of it, a person who bets regularly loses money on average over time. That is why we show margins, explain them, and never present betting as a way to earn money. If betting stops being a pastime, see Responsible Use.

5. Prices and data

Prices, results, fixtures, line-ups, injuries, weather and news come from third-party suppliers and from our own processing. They can be late, incomplete or wrong. Prices change all the time and reach us with a delay; we show how old each price is. The price that applies to any bet is the one the bookmaker shows on its own site at that moment.

6. How bookmakers appear on mariobets

A bookmaker is named only if it holds a licence in the country where you told us you live, according to that country's official register — for example, in Italy, the register of the Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (ADM).
Names are plain text: no links, no logos, no offers, no promotions.
By default, the bookmakers named to you are the ones you chose in Profile, among those licensed in your country (all of those licensed there if you chose none of them). Once you have chosen your country, you can add others licensed there on the Predictions page, without changing your Profile (section 2a).
We have no affiliate, referral or other commercial relationship with any bookmaker. No bookmaker pays us to appear, to be ranked or to be described.
When we order bookmakers or prices, we use only objective criteria stated on the page — for example the highest price, the lowest margin or alphabetical order. No bookmaker can pay for a position.
Prices from bookmakers that are not licensed in your country, and from betting exchanges, may be used without their names to compute the fair price.
We apply the strictest rule we are subject to — the Italian ban on gambling advertising (Article 9 of Decree-Law No. 87 of 12 July 2018) — wherever you are.

7. Text written with artificial intelligence

Some texts are written with artificial intelligence: news summaries, explanations of why a figure may be unreliable, short match previews written from our data (they describe the context of a match and never predict its result), the answers of Ask mariobets (it explains our pages and your own record, and never says what or how much to bet), and the draft we prepare when you upload a photo of a betting slip. They are labelled as such, they can contain mistakes, and they never tell you what to bet. Always check a draft before saving it. Data-based predictions are computed from data with fixed rules; AI never writes them. A question to Ask mariobets that it recognises, by its words, as being about them or the accumulator calculator gets a fixed explanation written in advance, and its AI does not explain the terms that describe a prediction.

8. Records shared by members

Results on public profiles, in the feed and on the leaderboard come from what members logged. They are shown in units, not money, and nobody verifies that a logged bet was actually placed; each shared entry says whether it passed our check of the verified record (logged before kickoff, at a price the market offered).

9. Corrections and transparency

Everything we publish as a market signal or as evidence is recorded in an append-only log, so it cannot be changed afterwards without it showing. Each day's seal of this log is timestamped in the Bitcoin blockchain through OpenTimestamps, so anyone can check it was not rewritten; where the Predictions (Pronostici) section is offered, its forward record is added to the log day by day, once each day's matches are settled. When we find an error, we correct it and list the correction on the Method & evidence page.

10. Your responsibility

You are responsible for complying with the law where you live, including any rules about betting with third parties, and for what you do with the information. Any bet you place is placed by you, with a third party, under that party's terms.

11. Our legal documents

Our Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, Cookie Policy, Acceptable Use Policy, Responsible Use page and this Disclaimer explain the terms on which mariobets is offered. They are not legal advice to you.

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